CHARLOTTE AMALIE, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS — The Government of the Virgin Islands outlined a cautiously optimistic fiscal outlook for Fiscal Year 2027 during Friday’s Spring Revenue Estimating Conference, highlighting steady revenue growth, continued economic recovery, and strategic investments in infrastructure and public services.
Lt. Governor Tregenza A. Roach, Esq. opened the conference by acknowledging the ongoing challenge of balancing the Territory’s capacity with its growing needs, while commending government personnel for their dedication and accomplishments. “I am grateful for the work that you do,” the Lieutenant Governor said, emphasizing the importance of maximizing limited resources to meet the needs of the community.
Governor Albert Bryan Jr. reinforced a forward-looking message, encouraging attendees to focus on opportunity and progress. “The future is bright. You have to be the light that lights a thousand candles,” Governor Bryan said, pointing to continued investments in schools, hospitals, and critical infrastructure as evidence of the Territory’s advancement.
Revenue Outlook Shows Continued Stability
According to projections presented by the Bureau of Economic Research, the Territory’s overall revenues are expected to grow steadily, reaching approximately $870.7 million in FY 2027, up from $866.4 million in FY 2026. This reflects a broader trend of moderate but consistent fiscal strengthening since FY 2022, supported by stable tax performance and sustained economic activity.
However, officials noted some variability within revenue streams. The Internal Revenue Bureau (IRB) projects gross receipts tax collections to decline by approximately 15 percent, largely attributed to the departure of high-net-worth individuals. Despite this, other categories show resilience.
Since 2019, the IRB has issued more than $411 million in tax refunds, underscoring improved administrative efficiency.
General Revenue Trends
FY2025 represented a peak in revenues, followed by normalization in FY2026 and renewed growth projected for FY2027.
Gross estimated revenues for FY2026 are $873.9 million and for FY2027 are projected to be $896.7 million, driven by income tax stabilization and gradual increases in other revenue categories.
Inflation remains elevated but is moderating, while employment and visitor arrivals show steady recovery.
Tourism and Airlift Fuel Revenue Growth
Tourism remains a key driver of the Territory’s economy. Post-pandemic recovery trends continue, with a 16.5 percent increase in non-stop flights from the U.S. projected for 2026. St. Thomas is expected to see a 21.6 percent rise in available seats, while St. Croix anticipates a slight decline compared to 2025 but remains above 2024 levels.
Cruise tourism is also expected to remain strong, with 1.9 million passengers projected in both 2026 and 2027, surpassing pre-pandemic benchmarks and reinforcing the Territory’s position as a premier Caribbean destination.
Disaster Recovery and Capital Projects to Shape FY 2027
The Office of Disaster Recovery (ODR) reported that more than 40 large-scale projects will impact FY 2027 revenues and expenditures. While projected ODR revenues total approximately $36.7 million, expenditures are expected to reach $733.9 million, reflecting the scale of ongoing rebuilding efforts.
Major projects span healthcare, infrastructure, and education, including:
- Hospital and medical facility reconstruction across both districts
- Power generation and utility modernization projects
- Territory-wide school rebuilding initiatives
- Multi-sector infrastructure bundles and public safety facilities
These investments are designed to strengthen long-term resilience and support economic growth.
Property Tax Collections and Economic Development Gains
The Office of the Tax Collector reported continued increases in property tax revenues since FY 2019, bolstered by enhanced collection efforts and legislative tools such as the In Rem Jurisdiction Foreclosure Act. Delinquency collections are expected to rise in the near term before stabilizing as outstanding balances are reduced.
Meanwhile, the Economic Development Authority (EDA) continues to expand the Territory’s tax base and job market. The program has grown to 110 beneficiaries, with a 41 percent increase between 2021 and 2025, and is now rebounding after a temporary dip in applications. Additional onboarding is expected to generate $10 million in new revenue in the coming years.
A Positive but Measured Outlook
Officials emphasized that while certain revenue categories face pressure, the overall fiscal outlook remains stable and positive. The combination of tourism growth, targeted economic development, and federal disaster recovery investments is expected to sustain the Territory’s upward trajectory.
Governor Bryan concluded by underscoring the importance of continued collaboration and purpose-driven governance. “We are doing tremendous things in these Virgin Islands,” he said. “This is going to be a good year.”
The Bryan-Roach Administration is investing in the Territory’s people, infrastructure and future through transparency, stabilizing the economy, restoring trust in the government and ensuring that recovery projects are completed as quickly as possible. Visit transparency.vi.gov
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